Posted on 09/01/2019 2:07:56 AM PDT by CptnObvious
What Happened to ALL the Dorian Computer Models Hitting Florida?
Was it me, or were ALL the computer models hitting Florida for several days. And I don't remember even one predicting it going to the east of Florida and up beside the US East Coast.
Now, all but one predict it NOT hitting Florida, the one predicting a loop into Florida and back then zipping up the coast with all the other models.
My question is, What Happened to change all the Computer Models, in one day so drastically. How did all the computer models get changed like this so fast?
Were we getting Played?
How do they differ from Model Track Guidance?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_gefs_latest.png https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_geps_latest.png
Weather models work like this:the more data you have, the better they are. We don’t have a lot of data over the oceans so they are just ok there to determine ridges and trofs. When we add a lot of data points-they get better.
“ALL models are wrong, though some are useful.”
Attributed to the statistician George Box, of Box-Cox and Box-Jenkins fame.
It is about to in Florida, will go.right accross like Mathew... the winds cannot push it North until it is in the open in the Guldf imo
Was it Eisenhower who said all plans are vital but it never goes as planned
I read about chaos theory in Scientific American many years ago. They showed how chaos generators were everywhere, using the timing of a dripping faucet to generate chaotic patterns for example. The Computer Recreations column also had some fun little projects on chaos theory. Interesting and fun.
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