Kimberly Guilfoyle
Spygate: Obama Admin Cut Situation Room’s Video Feed During Meetings on Russia
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Chief Wolfhound
(Former USAF Fighter Pilot • Retired Federal Senior Intelligence Officer • Collar-Brass LEO • Opinions my own 2015-2019)
In contrast, the normal way to provide intelligence to policy makers is National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs). NIEs are United States federal government documents that are the authoritative assessment of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) on intelligence
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related to a particular national security issue.
NIEs are produced by the National Intelligence Council and express the coordinated judgments of the United States Intelligence Community, the group of 17 U.S. intelligence agencies.
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NIEs are classified documents prepared for policymakers. NIEs are considered to be “estimative” products, in that they present what intelligence analysts estimate may be the course of future events.
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Coordination of NIEs involves not only trying to resolve any inter-agency differences, but also assigning confidence levels to the key judgments and rigorously evaluating the sourcing for them.
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Each NIE is reviewed and approved for dissemination by the National Intelligence Board (NIB), which comprises the DNI and other senior leaders within the Intelligence Community.
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Senior civilian and military policymakers, including congressional leaders, typically request NIEs. Before a NIE is drafted, the relevant National Intelligence Officer (NIO) produces a concept paper or ‘terms of reference’ (TOR) and circulates it throughout the IC for comment..
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The TOR defines the key estimative questions, determines drafting responsibilities, and sets the drafting and publication schedule.
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Several IC analysts from different agencies produce the initial text of the estimate. The NIC then meets to critique the draft before it is circulated to the broader IC.
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Representatives from the relevant IC agencies meet to hone and coordinate line-by-line the full text of the NIE. Working with their agencies, representatives also assign the confidence levels to each key judgment. IC representatives discuss the quality of sources with intelligence collectors to ensure the draft does not contain erroneous information.
The IC must overcome several challenges to produce accurate and useful strategic intelligence assessments, including: Urgent requests vs. lengthy process:
The process of interagency coordination and an insistence on analytic rigor normally push the completion of NIEs to several months or even more than a year.
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Per Congress’s request in the fall of 2002, the IC rushed to complete the NIE on Iraq and weapons of mass destruction (which turned out to be incorrect-though not as incorrect as is generally believed) in less than a month.
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Since a rushed product can result in poor or inaccurate assessments, the IC must balance the urgency for a requested assessment with a commitment to analytical rigor.
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Because NIEs represent the consensus view of the IC, all 17 agencies have input on each NIE. Such collaboration can lead to:
Gridlock, where many different interests slow the analytic process.
Compromise, where the estimates contain only “lowest common denominator” language.
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Groupthink, where opposing views are subconsciously discouraged.
Throughout the past several decades, the release of a NIE on a controversial policy have usually resulted in charges that the IC politicized its key findings.
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Charges of politicization come from both Democrats and Republicans, but normally emerge from the side that does not agree with the policy implications of the analysis.
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Changes or reversals in NIE assessments over time cause some legislators to question whether the change resulted from newly collected intelligence or whether analysts changed their position to support a specific political agenda.
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For example, the IC accusation of politicization surfaced after the key judgments of NIEs on the ballistic missile threat to the US changed between 1993 & 1995.
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Some Republicans claimed the IC politicized the findings to support President Clinton’s policy against missile defense systems.
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I know a Russian Cyber Attack NIE exists because I drafted the TOR before I retired in 2010. NIEs do not necessarily expire.
So, the question is, “Why didn’t the Obama Adminstration use an existing NIE when Russian hacking was detected prior to the 2016 election?