This whale will win on SUPER LONG ROUTES between 2 airports that have the capacity to support the beast, but few airports have that ability, leaving this as a NICHE airplane, only viable between limited locations with HIGH DEMAND for the route...
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That’s very true and the niche has been filled.
Like I initially said, Boeing made the right bet that airlines and passengers would want the convenience of point to point routes with smaller long range aircraft.
Not so much customers, but Airlines. A Jumbo is a massive asset, the more flexibility an airline has with its asset the better it can service customers and adjust to market changes.
The 380 was from its inception, ONLY going to be able to service, high demand large demand routes, not only for passenger, but even FREIGHT, due to the need for stronger and longer runways.. It was always limited to where it could service, and route length further restricted this in where it would be financially viable for service. IE two airports relatively close MAY be able to service the 380, but the 4 jet burn, costs on a shorter trip could not be profitable without a full plane, which the shorter route may not have the demand to fill a 380 consistently.
I can understand why Airbus thought this thing wasn’t going to turn out the dog that it did, asian growth over the last few decades has meant far more transpacific traffic, and long routes to both the Americas over the pacific and Europe as well.. However, the initial sales forecast of 1200 such planes, seemed VERY optimistic to me, even when I first read about this thing being built. And I admit NO knowledge of the airline industry. However I do know that the 747, only about 1500 total were produced by Boeing over its 40 year production cycle, and it was basically killed by the ETOPS, had ETOPS never come to be, I am sure Boeing would likely still be making them.. but as ETOPS certification allowed twin engines to fly further and further from airports, the 4 engine 747 was going to go away.
But anyway, the idea that 380 would get close to the same sales as the 747 sounded pipe dream from the start.
Its a very interesting airplane, don’t get me wrong, but it just misread the market.