Alien Hunters, Stop Using the Drake Equation

space.com ^ | December 27, 2018 08:00am ET | Paul Sutter, Astrophysicist

[BenLurkin]

For the precocious hunter of off-Earth life, the Drake equation is the ever-ready, go-to toolkit for estimating just how (not) lonely humans are in the Milky Way galaxy. The equation was developed by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961 in a slight hurry so that attendees of an upcoming conference would have something to confer about, and it breaks down the daunting question "Are we alone?" into more manageable, bite-size chunks.

The equation starts with some straightforward concepts, such as the rate of star formation and the fraction of stars hosting planets. But it quickly moves into tricky terrain, asking for numbers like what fraction of those planets that could host life actually end up evolving intelligent species and what fraction of those planets blast out friendly signals into the cosmos, inviting us Earthlings to a nice little chat.

…

For the Drake equation, we simply have no idea about the uncertainties attached to any of the parameters. What fraction of planets where life could get started eventually develop life? Zero percent? 100 percent? Somewhere in between? Is it 50 percent plus or minus 5 percent? Or plus or minus 25 percent? Or plus 5 percent and minus 25 percent?

And it takes only one unknown uncertainty to sink the whole enterprise. You may chip away at the Drake equation over the course of decades, taking careful observation after careful observation, measuring star-formation rates, hunting for liquid water on planetary surfaces, the works. You may think you're making good progress on nailing down this prediction, but as long as a single parameter still has unknown uncertainty, you haven't made any progress.

[DesertRhino]

This is a mere rehash of a Michael Crichton lecture at Caltech in 2003 titled ‘Aliens Cause Global Warming’

https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/Crichton2003.pdf

That’s where the concept of Drake having no meaning came from.

[BenLurkin]

Works for me. Where can I see more of her...uh...broadcasts?

[DesertRhino]

“This serious-looking equation gave SETI a serious footing as a legitimate intellectual inquiry.
The problem, of course, is that none of the terms can be known, and most cannot even be
estimated. The only way to work the equation is to fill in with guesses. And guesses—just so
we’re clear—are merely expressions of prejudice. Nor can there be “informed guesses.” If you
need to state how many planets with life choose to communicate, there is simply no way to make
an informed guess. It’s simply prejudice.
As a result, the Drake equation can have any value from “billions and billions” to zero. An
expression that can mean anything means nothing. Speaking precisely, the Drake equation is
literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science. I take the hard view that science
involves the creation of testable hypotheses. The Drake equation cannot be tested and therefore
SETI is not science. SETI is unquestionably a religion”

Michael Crichton

[Rashputin]

I wanna know why all the things they say proves all the weird stuff sighted is aliens then turn around and say the Bible describing the exact same sort of stuff is attributed to angels and demons is BS.

They make entire programs about what ancient knowledge has been lost then insist the ancients were all dumb as door nails. They could have had bits and pieces of all kinds of advanced technology a few people knew about and kept within a small clique but, nooo, it had to be aliens who built anything we can't figure out.

Anything that someone claimes 'proves' aliens are running loose pissed off because they came here to hunt T-Rex so they settle for anal probing is just stupid. All their 'proof' fits exactly with what the Bible attributes to the plane angels and demons exist on. A portion of reality we don't normally interact with.

It's nothing but egotism that puffs up the godless twits driving the crap about aliens because it feeds their ego to insist we're smarter than everyone who lived before us. We're not, we use different approaches, but that doesn't make us smarter or even provably as smart.

For professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

JMHo

[RedMonqey]

What are the chances that the first aliens to find us are Episcopalians? Military? Fugitives from justice?

To traverse the vast emptiness of space and the inherit dangers, Aliens may have about as much interest in us as we do an ant colony in the far reaches of Africa. Barely amusing.

And see our existence as just as important.

But I doubt they will be here to mine out our planet, enslave us or mate with us. There's much more abundant resources along the way.

[xp38]

and they’re spectacular!

[Widget Jr]

I always found it strange that the Drake Equation is taken so seriously, when not one element of it can be proven or demonstrated at all.

[Gideon7]

https://www.fanfiction.net/s/9613635/34/After-Ragnar%C3%B6k

[RedMonqey]

Works for me. Where can I see more of her...uh...broadcasts?

I think "Mystery and Myths" is playing on the Travel channel(Frankly I never bothered)

"Jennifer's Body" was an interesting...ahem...example of the body of her work.

But if you're just want to cut to the chase, cut and paste "Megan Fox, nude" in your friendly neighborhood search engine.(Most are fake, though except for a few "Jennifer's Body" pixs)

Not that I've looked for them... Ahem....

[gop4lyf]

https://www.amazon.com/Out-Dark-David-Weber/dp/076536381X

Here is an alien invasion look that I have to recommend, for those that might be interested in such a thing. Weber is a pretty big sci-fi writer.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks BenLurkin.

"But I am not really willing to accept your premise, because it may well be that the means of communications they have are of a kind that we do not know how to receive, and that they would not have the means of communicating with sufficiently powerful radio or optical signals. That is something which, technologically, is too difficult for them but they would have some other means we would not recognize." -- Thomas J. Gold, 'Communication with Extraterrestial Intelligence' (Sagan, ed)

• The Fermi Paradox Is Not Fermi's, and It Is Not a Paradox [2016]
• Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” II: Questioning the Hart-Tipler Conjecture [2015]

[Rashputin]

I suspect she’s not going to handle 100% home grown Tennessee aging very well so in a few more years and you won’t be able to say that.

[Pelham]

but...but...Aliens!

[RedMonqey]

"and they’re spectacular!”

The hills of Tennessee at their finest

But I could do without the tats.



Yuck!

[x]

I guess if you're a hard science person looking for numerical answers that are certain, exact and definitive you are going to hate that thing.

But surely the point is that we don't know exactly just how likely it is that we will find extraterrestrials or that they will find us, except to say that it is very unlikely.

So you can play with the variables to see what makes it more or less likely. If the variables are more or less correct and the relationship between them is more or less correct, faulting the formula for not giving you an exact answer looks like quibbling.

Of course we don't (and can't) know the right answer. It's going to be guesswork for the foreseeable future.

My opinion anyway, as the most unscientific person I know.

[Political Junkie Too]

Here is the PJ Paradox:

With high probability, some of these stars have Earth-like planets...

Then wouldn't they be likely to have Earth-like lifespans? I think a big barrier is when life only lives for 100 years, and only plans for a few years out at a time.

How does life like that cross a galaxy?

-PJ

[BenLurkin]

Looks good.

[Pelham]

Her qualifications are obvious.

[RedMonqey]

"I suspect she’s not going to handle 100% home grown Tennessee aging very well so in a few more years and you won’t be able to say that.”

Sadly I suspect you're right.

It's a pity that women feel the need to place artificial products into their body to produce the illusion of youth for just a few more years...because those things will have to come out eventually(they get very hard) and leave the lady worse off than if she just let nature alone.

With my lady friends I've always complimented them on their natural appearances (and secretly pitied those who former beaus pushed them to get "enhancements")

They are just a total turn off for me.

So, to the ladies, Leave them alone and leave your boyfriend!

[RedMonqey]

"Her qualifications are obvious”

Yes(and given her acting abilities and education)Hollywood already has her replacement... just waiting for her to get of legal age.(Hollywood is a cruel industry)