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Trump's almost 1/2 way through his first term. At the rate he's going it's not looking like he's going to get a second,

There you go again, Derpinator.

Tell us again how you support Trump.

Bagster

Tell us again how you support Trump.

Supporting someone doesn't mean making up rose-colored stories about them, claiming they are winning when they are clearly not, or generally failing to deal with reality.

It would be great if Trump were sailing high and on his way to a second term. The facts are that he won because he flipped five midwestern states with a few hundred thousand votes to gain the Electoral College victory.

Look how many of the districts in those states flipped from Red to Blue this month.

A lot can happen in two years, but if I were Trump's campaign manager (does he have one?) I'd be pretty worried.

Part of my analysis of the last election that led me to predict a Trump victory was a very simple metric: any state that has a GOP governor has a very strong potential to go for the GOP Presidential candidate. It's the closest analog to compare.

In 2016 the Democrats flipped the following Governorships: Maine, Michigan, Wisconson, Illinois, Kansas, New Mexico and Nevada. If those states vote Dem for POTUS in 2020 Trump's margin would be 273 to 265, perilously close.

The trend does not appear to be his friend at this point.

That analysis has nothing to do with my support for him, which remains strong.