You guys make a great point about these Never Trumper, wishy-washy Republicans. Like GA-6, I’m anxious to see returns in Maricopa County, AZ. Virtually the entire increase in early voting in Arizona is due to Maricopa County, which saw 100,000 more early votes than 2014. In 2012, Mariciopa voted for Romney by 11 or 12 points. In 2016, it went for Trump by 3 points. The question is: Is this 100k increase in early votes the result of Republicans coalescing or defecting? My guess is coalescing but we will see.
Maricopa has seen large increases in both R and D voter registrations since 2016: R up 3.7% (gain of about 29,000), D up 7.9% (gain of about 39,000). Indies are up there too, but by less (about 15,000).
So if we go by differences in registration totals, it’s probably around 47% D, 35% R, 18% I for those new early voters. As with all EV, of course nobody yet knows how the actual votes went.