You follow the msm too much
Wrong. I haven't watched or read an MSM program/paper for 20 years.
I live in a CD that Trump won in 2016 that the Democrat is up probably +15 for an open seat. The most important CDs in the country (to figure out what's going on as both parties die at the same time) are the Obama win x 2 - switch to Trump CDs.
And what following them tells us is that Trump is much more popular than Republicans, and that House candidates on the (R) side who are anti-MAGA are in serious danger.
That's where I get my numbers - not the MSM.