Absolutely wrong.
I can prove this with data from Montgomery Co, OH, where 2 years ago we devised an intricate history search of EVERY “indie” household in the county. We then assigned them D or R status based on their history.
Guess what? We were dead on. Indies were breaking over 51% of Rs.
Will post about TN later comparing REP county turnout with the DEM county turnout.
Already 345,000 early voters after only 3 days of early voting!
Turnout in 2014 was about 1.3 million. Turnout in 2016 was 2.4 million. What will this year’s turnout be?