Here’s my take on this...
Tesla “sedans” could easily become the best-selling sedan on the market in 5-10 years, give or take.
How?
Well, it’s all about the ICE sedans. ICE sedans are not selling as hot as the did 3-10 years ago.
HOWEVER!!!!!!
The sedan ICE cars are being replaced by the “new” preferred vehicles, those being the SUVs and trucks. People are trading in their sedans and not buying other sedans; they’re buying SUVs and trucks.
So, it turns out that, sedans are slowly but surely losing sales, and in FACT, Ford has indicated that they may stop manufacturing and selling sedans. Sedans are taking a hit throughout the automobile industry.
With that kind of scenario, the number of sedan sales in the entire industry, is going down.
So, it turns out that, Tesla outsold 2 or 3 “known” sedans in the last quarter (or two). So, even if Tesla’s sales remain the same, and the other sedans continue losing favor with the consumers, Tesla will, BY DEFAULT, become the best-selling sedan on the market.
HOWEVER...
Overall, EV sedans continue lagging badly to the overall sedan market.
And, when compared to overall sales of sedans and SUVs and trucks, the numbers for Tesla continue to look miserable.
It’s very easy to overtake a market which is ceasing to exist, and the same reason that is seeing the sales of sedans going down, will eventually see EV sedans disappearing too.
I think we'll see a couple of changes -- one, the battery technology will improve two or three times over the next ten years, and the older EVs will look like buggy whips to the "gotta have new" crowd; two, production of EVs by European companies (VW for example) will rise in Europe and in North America, probably preferentially in Canada and Mexico, taking advantage of the USMCA. If China wants further penetration of the US market, EVs are a good way to do it, and they'll probably move production to Mexico and Canada.