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Honestly, I think the chance of Kavanaugh not getting confirmed is less than 5%, and here I’m being generous.

Donnelly, Heitkamp, Machin, McCaskil, and Nelson... One or two of these democrats will vote yes to confirm.

Murkowski and Collins will also vote yes. Since McCain likes him, Flake also votes yes.

Final vote: 53 Aye, 47 Nay.

This drama was over before the curtain was even raised. It's so obvious a deal was cut that further discussion is actually pretty boring, so I imagine these types of threads will slowly disappear.

Just to summarize, Trump played his tactical Bush card. Yes, that GOP wing still exists, and given an honest power assessment by a master deal maker, Trump realized he had to make a concession.

Now, everyone can go about their business and literally phone the vote in when it comes to the floor: 54-45 Without any real grass roots opposition fireworks, the only only remaining issue is to limit the amount of material (aka fake denunciations) D political consultants can mine for Nov campaign materials.