The first theory can not be right because they would have charged Flynn with disclosing classified information to Trump because Flynn was still under a nondisclosure agreements.....but....Trump campaign higher ups did have some disclosure given to them by someone to escape falling into all the traps laid for them by the Obama administration. There is no way that happens naturally.
Now the prevailing theory is the 302 file is a composite. McCabe is toast. So is Yates. Patience.