[Boogieman]

“The probability of one of the passengers dying in the water after appearing “fine” to the other passengers is really slim.”

Why would the probability of an old pear-shaped woman having cardiac problems after a plane crash and extended treading of water be “really slim”? Seems actually pretty predictable to me.

[so_real]

I strongly disagree with your analysis. Using your logic the deaths from the survivors running down stairs and exiting the buildings after the planes hit the Twin Towers on 9/11 would have left piles of bodies even though they survived the attack. Fuddy's natural death is a possibility, but not remotely "predictable" as you say, and when viewed in the larger picture it is an extreme statistical outlier.