I’m sure if he hasn’t already, DJ will weigh in, but here are some realities about AZCD8:
*the seat was Gabby Giffords’ seat a few years ago. Before that, RINO Jim Kolbe.
*In 2012, in a special election, Barber (D) won by 7 points. Later that year, in the regular November election, Trent Franks kicked his butt.
*Franks was VERY popular, and was not even opposed by a D in 2016.
As you can see, any of these facts make the district far different from a “typical” red district. Franks had a solid fan base there, and Lesko won DESPITE his scandal. This is very important. A party who has a person resign due to scandal almost never wins the subsequent election.
Lesko has already announced she will caucus with the Freedom Caucus-—a VERY big deal.
So understand DemoKKKrat election analysis:
R wins by 30 points = “a close election.”
R wins by 7 points = “The DemoKKKrat really won.”
R loses by 500 votes (as in PA18) = “muh blue wave.”
Bottom line, Rs have carried six out of seven special House elections since Nov. 2016 and lost one by 500 votes.
Well said, LS!
There’s one key problem with your analysis: The present 8th and pre-2012 8th are not the same district or areas. The 2003-2013 8th was located in the SE corner of the state, centered on Tucson and Cochise County. That district became the 2nd beginning in 2013 and sends Martha McSally.
The current 8th was within the pre-2012 2nd (which was considerably chopped up) and centered on NW Phoenix and all of Mohave County on the NV & UT borders, so the NW corner of the state, and extended eastward to take in the Hopi Reservation. Only the NW Phoenix area remained in the “new” 8th, with the rest distributed to other districts, mostly the 4th and 1st.
As you know, AZ’s “Independent” redistricting board is leftist and drew the delegation to be 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans for the 2012 elections. McSally’s victory in 2014 turned that to a 5R-4D delegation. Were Republicans in charge of redistricting, as the legislature SHOULD be, this would be a 7R-2D state, and those two other RED Democrats (O’Halleran in the 1st and SINema in the 8th) would be gone, leaving just the ultraradicals Grijalva and Gallego.