It didn't Bill Clinton. The GOP-controlled House voted to impeach him, then a month later the Democrats had a good midterm election, despite the fact that the incumbent President's party historically fares poorly in midterms.
Excuse me, the U.S. House voted to proceed with impeachment proceedings in October 1998, and voted to impeach Bill Clinton in December of that same year.
Agree with your points. In addition, Trump relishes a good showdown. It would be a “make my day” moment.
For those reasons, all this impeachment talk is just smoke. Some folks are letting themselves be gaslit.