Let’s see if we can agree on one thing, at least.
We have no specific data on who ultimately paid import tariffs, correct? We have numbers for total exports and total imports, numbers for “Southern” and “Northern” exports, total tariff revenues and tariffs collected by port of entry, but we do not have numbers that tell us directly who paid import duties at the time of entry nor where those goods were ultimately sold within our borders.
Any such estimation must be based on inference drawn from available data. Would you agree with that?
Not yet, but why would we need specific data? Once we've established that a general condition holds, specific numbers will only reflect "noise."
Any such estimation must be based on inference drawn from available data. Would you agree with that?
Yes, but inferences are close enough. You aren't going to find a radical departure from the norm.
With the South producing 65-84 percent of the total export value, 65-84 percent of the tariff money must come from this revenue stream. (Probably more actually, because the tariffs were also weighted to favor the North.)
But none of this addresses the largest and most significant aspect of this. The bulk of European trade would have moved to Southern ports, and it would have very badly hurt some Northern Industries and especially New York.