My estimate is 23.
Could change that number, depending on the threshold for "really dramatic."
I expect nothing dramatic, no OIG report, no DHS elections report. FoxNews is ramping up the criticism of news, but discrediting CNN, NYT, WaPo, etc. is an ongoing effort, so I don't see it as "a dramatic event," even though the ramifications are profound.
However, we have a moderate hunch that something quite different from 'business as usual' is much more likely than has been routinely likely.