I have heard people say this often about Napoleon, but it is my recollection that he won the war against Russia in the Summer and occupied Moscow for quite a long time. He expected the Russians to come make peace terms with him, and so he lingered in Moscow.
The idea that they would just sit out in the countryside and wait him out seems to have never occurred to him, because that's just not the way things were done.
By the time he figured out that they weren't coming back, he found himself facing his most deadly enemy. The Russian winter.
I therefore think his primary mistake was not logistical, but grasp of the situation and timing. Had Napoleon abandoned Moscow and headed back before winter, the Grande Armée would have been preserved.
In other words, not really a logistical problem.
a nice analysis