The issue in VA is can a GOPe candidate motivate turnout. NOVA vote will be down as the pocketbook voters who showed up in 16 because their paychecks depend on the swamp have no motivation to show up for an off year governor election.
An R that would fire up th “MAGA” voters would have been able to take advantage of this fact by ensuring big turnout in the red counties... a GOPe candidate likely isn’t going to get them to show up.
Could the R win anyway? Sure, but I think it’s less likely. Gillespie may pull it off, but I don’t see how the R’s can take advantage of the lover NOVA turnout if they can’t motivate the MAGA voters to show up, and I just have a hard time seeing a GOPe candidate getting them to show.
Now the GOPe may pull this out anyway. NOVA turnout could be so low that just traditions R voter turnout may get him over the top, but this is a much lower probability.
I don’t disagree with you. That’s a good analysis as I understand Virginia to be.
Maryland liberals infested NOVA and want to make it like the cesspool I live in.
I recall that there were a couple MAGA type candidates in the primary who I guess gained no traction.
But, I think that even a squishy establishment guy is better than a hard liberal empty suit.
We have the same here in Maryland. I’m not thrilled with larry Hogan, but I’m ecstatic that it’s not Anthony Brown, who actually campaigned heavily on his abortion and gun control stances.