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a total tangent, and I know hindsight is easy, but I've always wondered why they didn't divide that hop into 2-3 segments instead of trying to hit an island so close to the outer limit of their range.... I know it's easy to say in retrospect, but they just did not think clearly about how difficult it might be to hit an island target in the midst of the vast Pacific given the technology and conditions they worked with.... there were not many options to put down short of Howland Island, but I'd bet there were at least a couple of islands with a tiny airstrip and a bit of fuel because of island plantations and company operations....they would have had a lot more fuel reserve if they were seeking to land after a shorter flight (in the Gilberts for instance).....they gambled their lives on being able to hit a tiny speck in a vast ocean, without a lot of fuel reserve, when they might have done a couple of shorter hops along the way. I suspect they just reflexively picked the most distant island they though they could reach that had an airstrip, and didn't think enough about the possible consequences of being off course, clouds or bad weather, low on fuel, etc. As it was they had mainly good weather, but still may have had a problem with cloud cover and visibility. I know, I know, hindsight.

A volcano eruption had completely destroyed Rabaul in May 1937 adding few hundred miles to the trip.

The Australians actually had to move their administration to Lae where Earhart refueled.

They rolled the dice and lost.

Even during WWII when the area was better developed it was still a dangerous area to fly, storms could brew up at any time forcing detours that could dangerously stretch your fuel supply.

but they just did not think clearly about how difficult it might be to hit an island target in the midst of the vast Pacific given the technology and conditions they worked with

That was part of the speculation on the Mili Atoll theory. It was speculated that they took off with extra fuel tanks so that if they couldn't locate Howland Island that they would have enough fuel to return to the Gilbert Islands (which I referred to incorrectly in an earlier post as the Solomon Islands). According to the Mili Atoll theory because their original flight path was too far north, when they turned and flew due west, they were north of the Gilbert Island and hit the southern-most of the Marshall Islands, Mili Atoll.