I don't really fault the analysis of the photograph, though. Under the assumption that the photograph was valid, this was about all they could do. As they stated in the documentary, there was not enough pixelation in the photograph to use facial recognition software. About all the researchers are left with is facial overlays and relative body measurements. When zoomed in, the face of the man does strongly resemble Fred Noonan.
Someone commissioned to determine identities in the photograph probably has no reason to question the validity of the date of the photo or its supposed location. Once it was determined to some degree of likelihood that the man in the photograph was possibly Noonan, it is not a huge leap to say that could be Amelia Earhart. The only story that would have put Noonan in the stated place at the stated time would involve Amelia Earhart. The person sitting on the dock does bear a resemblance to Earhart from behind. Again, due to lack of data, a measurement of limb proportion is about all that can be done.
Were the results overstated? Yes, to some degree. To the defense of the expert, he didn't go to his highest degree of assurance. History Channel was the one that took liberties with the conclusion.
The part that I found the most interesting was the "281 North Howland" message. I'm not a navigator, so it might be total nonsense but it seemed logical to me. We know that Earhart radioed that she was flying at 1000 feet to get under the clouds. If the documentary is to be believed, the only large bank of clouds that day was a building storm about 250-300 miles north of Howland Island. If she unknowingly was that far north of Howland Island and turned to return to the Solomon Islands, she would have gone straight into the Marshall Islands. The "281 North" could have been a compass bearing and not the mileage from Howland Island and that compass bearing goes right through the Marshall Islands' atoll where they claim the emergency landing occurred.
the problem is i can take a photo of a man with receding hair, a large nose, and superimpose it over noonan’s photo and decrease the opacity, and have it ‘match’ and i can take any woman’s photo who is the same size as ameilia’s and measure from shoulders to hips and say it’s her if the measurements are close- most women her size will have the same body type- nothing unusual about it-
The conclusion should have been “Intriguing, but far to little to make a determination on- far too many people fit the same dimension- we can’t say with any degree of accuracy if these are noonan and amelia- but it’s possible, given what was presented us”
[[To the defense of the expert, he didn’t go to his highest degree of assurance.]]
He went with ‘very high’ degree- i disagree- I think it’s more ‘a slight chance- given the lack of details and the fact that many people fit the profiles of both- we just don’t have enough to state with any assurance that it is them- could it be? Sure- could it be two completely different people? You betcha”