[caww]

Well TX...Wed. meeting with all the Senate does speak volumes.

However I do believe whatever is going to come down is already in motion. I somehow think it'll be similar to how Putin went into Crimea....Our military officials were absolutely amazed at how Putin pulled that off....but in doing so it also revealed Putins capabilities which was to our advantage. Our guys learned Putins technological capabilities were much more advanced than they had thought. He shut down all their communications...every bit of it .. Shutting down Kims communications would not be so difficult......and I do think there are N.Koreans in N.Korea who are already prepared to assist. This last defector was a high Official in Kims brood....who said their would likely be those in Kims circle more than willing to to see Kim go.

[miele man]

As best I remember, Russia invaded Czechoslovakia in August, 1968. Along with other Soviet bloc nations’ (Warsaw Pact) military tanks and troops as a ruse, Russia entered the Czech homeland. When the maneuvers were completed, Russian tanks, troops and other assets began to leave. They did not use the usual and customary military communication assets at all. Suddenly, the Russians pivoted and took over Prague and other cities in the Czech nation. Needless to say, this move caught America and the US military off guard. Turned out that the Soviet commanders simply used local telephones at pre-arranged and other locations to communicate. Perhaps Putin learned from this. Does Kim Jong Un have this infrastructure even in a rudimentary form? Probably not other than in Pyongyang city/county limits and via military channels.

[Yosemitest]

Putin and Russian weapons are the unnoticed wildcard in the North Korean threat.
I believe Putin will be supplying North Korea will a great amount of help, just to keep the United States off guard
and then Putin will become more involved in the middle east, while we are bogged down in North Korea.

First let me state my background:

I've got 5 short tours in the ROK randomly from 1985 thru 1995 over 26 + years in USAF Air Traffic Control.

Too man people have little or no idea of what South Korea's military is capable of, and just how closely they mirror the United States' capabilities.
But no matter how you evaluate the situation, you must understand that most of North Korea's military is 'brainwashed' and a lot of the North Korean civilians are "brainwashed'.

Now a lot has changed since my departure from the ROK in the summer of 1995, but even then, the U.S. military had intel that several North Korean Generals wanted to start the War and were under the belief that they would lose.
They wanted to get the 'loss' over with, so the recovery could begin, because the North Korean people were under such dire conditions.

Northwest of Seoul, North Korea has a runway built into the side of a mountain as a tunnel that's exit is pointed straight at Seoul.
That runway is just large enough for fighters about the size of our F-5s or F-16s to use. The hangers are on the other side of the mountain, tunneled into the side of the mountain, similar to hangers we have in Iceland and Greenland.

As to Franz-Stefan Gady's assumptions:

" ...First, despite treaty obligations laid out in the 1961 Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, China will not come to the defense of North Korea in the event of a North Korean surprise attack on the South.

Second, Pyongyang will not use nuclear weapons to destroy Seoul.

Third, North Korea — even if it has the capability — will not fire an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) against a target in the continental United States.

Fourth, the United States will not fire nuclear missiles against Pyongyang.

The core belief underlying these assumptions is
that North Korea’s supreme leader, Kim Jong-un, is primarily motivated by regime survival
and as a consequence would not unnecessarily expose Pyongyang to a U.S. nuclear attack and immediately escalate the conflict to the nuclear level as long as he assumes that he can retain a second-strike capability.
Furthermore, under this scenario, Kim assumes that South Korean and American war plans do not entail his removal from power
(which, not only due to recent comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, may be a flawed assumption). "

I do NOT agree that China will stay out of it.
China's interest are 'China First'.
They my use their leverage to get us out of the area for their own interest in Taiwan and their oil interest in the southwestern Pacific north of the Philippines.

I do NOT agree that North Korea will not use nuclear weapons.
North Korea is an expert at "Brinksmanship", and if they believe they're going to be destroyed, they'll take everyone down with them.

I do NOT agree that North Korea will not fire an ICBM at the United States, although I don;t believe they can get one to work, without it being 'EMP-ed" or shot down out of the sky.
Franz-Stefan Gady's assumption that "Kim Jong-un, is primarily motivated by regime survival" is different than what I assume.
I believe that Kim Jong-un, is primarily motivated by his own survival.
If he thinks his survival is no longer tenable, then all bets are off as to just how far he'll go.

HOW the war will start, in my opinion, is entirely different than Franz-Stefan Gady's assumption.
But I don't believe that should be revealed.
Our military starts by taking out the most serious threats first.
But we shouldn't back off until we can hand over total control of North Korea to South Korea.
There will be a lot of North Koreans that will be killed.
But it needs to be done, in order to solve this problem that William Jefferson Blythe Clinton and the DemocRATS made a lot worse !