Your analysis is correct, unless there is a levee break further upstream on the San Joaquin or Sacramento rivers. If one of those breaks on a major river moving 250,000 - 350,000CFS, that will get a lot of people wet.
Of course their will be minor flooding at the base of every gully in the foothills, and the Consumes will flood I5 as usual.
But it’s time to worry about the big rivers now.
I really think after what happened this winter, there will now be calls to build a small flood-control dam on Consumes River just east of Rancho Murietta. Otherwise, everything on the shores of the Consumes will flood every winter we have even slightly above-normal rains.