Uber drives thru red lights. We lose our license.
Human pilots are still required in planes after decades, in simple scenarios like flying in open air.
Someone does not trust computer pilots.
“Human pilots are still required in planes after decades, in simple scenarios like flying in open air.”
Flying is not “simple”.
And it took time for technology to catch up. Have you heard of drones? Computers are capable of doing things humans are not.
We see this with specific tasks also. For example, chess. A few decades ago, a decent chess player could easily beat the best computers. Today, a smart phone can give a rated player a run for his or her money.
If we were arguing over things that require true human intelligence like scientific research, writing novels and other stories, inventing things, etc. then I might agree that we are further off than most predictions.
However, driving a car is not a very difficult task. It requires very little computational power. The biggest difficulty is updating laws and the road infrastructure to accommodate self-driving cars.
There are two fundamental reasons why I am certain this will be adopted rapidly: the technology is already here, and the benefits are enormous.
The cost for the average person to get around is going to be drastically reduced by self-driving cars. Those who do not own cars will be able to get point to point much cheaper than they can own a car today because cars will be shared. And those who own a car will be able to share it and reduce costs as well, if they so choose.
Safety will be drastically increased. There will be accidents and sabotage, but this is nothing compared to what happens every day right now. A little while ago I narrowly missed being in a pileup of about a dozen vehicles. None of the cars were self-driving. At least one human made a tragic miscalculation or did something otherwise completely stupid. The cost of this is huge.
Further, traffic congestion will be greatly reduced, and commute times will drastically shorten. Getting around will become much more efficient.
Cost savings, safety, and time savings will drive the adoption of this technology by society sooner rather than later. And if it does not, then be sure to come back and say so in ten years. I’ve been around here that long and plan to be then as well. But also be prepared to admit your error when it is commonplace within the next decade, because it will be.