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If you combine Drudge’s FL early vote count with Trump behind, with the clear numeric data that shows that much, much more early voting has taken place this year than in 2012, Trump will have far less voters at the polls than Romney did on Tuesday to try and make up that gap. If he does exactly as well as Romney did with them on election day percentage-wise, Trump may win by just a few thousand votes. That’s way too uncertain to count on. And you have to couple that with the fact that FL seems just as close now as it was in 2012, razor-thin. Compare to Iowa or Ohio, where Trump is doing incredibly well.

That’s the narrative. Increased latino population in NV and FL seems to have hurt Trump, while whites in the industrial midwest are helping him. It seems to me more logical we’ll see those two effects magnified on election day, not mitigated or minimized. Just like Obama’s strength with blacks and their turnout was stronger than the pollsters anticipated in 2012.

I would consider giving him CO before FL and NV. Still not feeling good about the whole Mormon/latino/ex-Californian lefty mix out in that area.

Trump's "Brexit" to Victory