[nathanbedford]

I don't know of anyone who maintains that all polls are accurate all the time just as I don't know of any sensible person who argues that all polls are wrong all the time. Interestingly, Dr. Gallup himself once told me that his firm had Truman beating Dewey in 1948 but they reported the opposite because they simply could not believe their own research. He said they would never do that again and I believed him. Gallup is now out of the political polling business because they always regarded that as a loss leader to bring in the profitable commercial business.

But to return to the polls. They get more accurate as they get closer to the election and some of them were extremely accurate in 2012, for example. Nate Silver was dead on for two election cycles, for example. Some polls are more accurate overall and over time than others. I have read to my sorrow on these very threads multitudes of ironclad assurances that the polls favoring Barack Obama were oversampling Democrats and Romney was sure to win. The pollsters were right and the conservatives who did not have enough trust in their fellow conservatives to let them know the truth, were wrong.

I do believe the polls can point us to a trend and that is why before the debate I thought that the trend lines were clear, that Trump had the momentum, and that he would win the election if his momentum continued. Therefore, Hillary had the task in the debate of disrupting the momentum. That was an inversion of the conventional understanding which obtained only weeks perhaps even only days before. That gave all the advantages in the debate to Trump and presented Hillary was an uphill battle, especially for a person who is unlikable and thoroughly disliked who must play the aggressor. That being so, I argued that Trump had only to show himself to be presidential, to present himself to be worthy of the office and not to worry about winning every point because the bulk of the undecided nation dislikes Hillary and had done so for decades and was going to look at Trump to see if they can safely vote for him. My belief is that Trump blundered in the debate and the conservatives on this thread who see him as the winner because they like the way he argued the issues they like, misunderstand the context of the debate. The context was visual not issue oriented. It was a job interview for Donald Trump and he needed only to look the part to get the job.

Did Donald Trump lose the job interview even as he pleased conservatives on the issues?

We shall see in the course of time whether he passed the interview and we will be educated by, guess what, polls. I understand they will begin to come out today, Wednesday, and we will see whether Trump's momentum has been blunted or not. If not, I think he will march on to victory because he is clearly made of Teflon or kryptonite.

Meanwhile I am content to wait for real polls to point to the trend. Of course, I do not dismiss the possibility that I am wrong in this scenario, I was wrong many times in the primaries misjudging the public's reaction the Donald Trump.

[sargon]

But to return to the polls. They get more accurate as they get closer to the election

Thus, the further out they are, the more they amount ot propaganda, especially when "tweaked" in the pro-Establishment way we have seen, and then used as part of an overall State propaganda campaign.

That's why I asked you about Brexit, because you're overseas (or were), living in Germany, right? Germany itself has been surprised by some recent election results, if I'm not mistaken.

The same trends that the European elite are in denial of (indeed they're fighting against these trends tooth and nail, and losing, in general) are being resisted by the American elite, and these mainstream, pro-Hillary pollsters (and they are both mainstream and biased in favor of her) are going to be wrong by at least a few points. That means if things look close on November 7, the advantage will be Trump's.

One thing for sure, if these pro-Hillary pollosters and pundits are going to be wrong, they're going to make darn sure that they're wrong in Hillary's favor, not Trump's which will conveniently continue to serve their propaganda narratives through election day.

The Revolution is ON!

Vote Trump!