Posted on 09/02/2016 7:11:28 AM PDT by ctpsb
LOL. That is post of the day material!
The bias would be huge. We are friends with decent people for the most part, while we avoid communists, parasites, and tyrants. Thus, those on FR know relatively few fans of Hillary. We also disproportionately live in patriotic areas. The results of a poll in our own counties/precincts would show a gigantic Trump landslide, whether or not that is true. It would show roughly this map, with blanks in the dark blue areas.
Even the recent headlines are still stressing her :
“Hillary’s LEAD is reduced”
NOT
“Trump Gains Against Hillary!”
Now, which one sounds positive, and which one emphasizes Hillary’s older lead?
There are about 3200 counties in the USA.
I wonder how many of them are represented on Free Republic?
I would guess we have 95% of those counties . . . and that Hillary will win the much more populous remaining 5% in a huge landslide. That's a systematic bias that would make an FR poll useless. Even without polling, wWe know Trump wins rural Texas/Utah/Idaho/etc. We know Hillary wins slums. If we don't know the margins in the counties we lose along with those in the counties we win, we don't know anything worthwhile. We really do have to include those missing counties.
Exactly.
When polls are bunk and included in the RCP, then the RCP is just averaged bunk.
RCP is good, if you want to know how people felt 4 weeks ago.
Exactly.
When polls are bunk and included in the RCP, then the RCP is just averaged bunk.
RCP is good, if you want to know how people felt 4 weeks ago.
I’m thinking of a list of precincts and then a random sample of precincts rather than individuals. And then a random CANVAS of those precincts.
What thinketh thou?
I think that would be very hard - I did polling professionally for years, and it’s surprisingly difficult to get accurate results.
And the LaTimes/USC has Trump back at +3 while Granite State poll from Aug 20-28 still has Clinton +9 in NH. I want to see that poll tighten, which it will if Trump improves among reluctant Republicans. I don’t think Johnson is really going to get 9%. Trump needs to win those voters to give him, and us, a chance to turn this country away from Clinton corruption which will poison our nation. I’m with Trump when he says “This is our last chance.” Let every person against corrupt government join us.
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