“Simple math would tell no such thing.”
Ok, then.
Tell me how it’s wrong.
This ought to be good.
Easy. You are assuming a non-zero probability that life can arise at random, yet you cannot establish that such a non-zero probability actually exists.
IF there was a non-zero probability, it might be simple math, however, since you cannot logically or scientifically establish that such a non-zero probability exists, the math doesn’t actually work in your favor. If you were honest, you would have to assign the probability of life arising at random to a variable of unknown magnitude, but that would not support your biases, so you don’t do that.