Silver’s election forecast about Trump was 100% wrong everytime in the last year. I watched him closely this year since an anti-Trumper told me he was better than sliced bread. Silver usually tried to ignore Trump hoping he would go away.
He’s not all that great not at all. Anyone could do what he does if one pays attention. He’d make his final primary predictions only a few hours before a vote after a slew of polls came in making it easy to predict.
The liberal media and their pollsters have now made a pivot being all-in for Hillary that was not seen as much in the Republican primary elections where their liberal bias was down a few pegs. With the media polls in the general election being skewed and slanted against Trump as I routinely see looking at the internals when it is possible. Little liberal Natey is going to get it wrong again about Tump and a lot wrong.
I agree with almost everything you said. The part where you mention that “anyone could do what he does if one pays attention” is a sticking point. I totally disagree. If I had the skill to predict NBA, NFL, Golf, NASCAR, etc, I would be a very rich man. There are a lot of analytics that go into it. Far more than just paying attention.
The one point about this guy was, he stepped away from analytics and used his dislike of trump to help make predictions. Didn’t work. He wrote a pretty analytic heavy case study based on his mistakes. It’s a pretty good read if you can get through it. Basically, he did what a lot of people did, assumed too much.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/