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I don’t see any success in secession or civil war. It would be asymmetric and look a lot like terrorism.

Excellent point, and I agree up to a point.

The first question is by far the more interesting one: secession.

Let's all recall our Jr. High history: the states of the Confederacy all voted to secede. Could that happen today? If it could then a second Civil War might well be avoided.

There is no moral issue approaching Slavery to galvanize one group to start killing the other. Events like the Brexit vote (and many others over the year, including multiple votes on French Canadian separatism, votes on Puerto Rican separation, etc.) have changed the way people think about these things.

I have long held that the first state to secede (if any do) will be Hawaii.

Hawaii has the strongest case for secession.

It was the only State that was a fully formed nation, recognized internationally for decades, prior to annexation by the USA. (Yes, Vermont was a Republic for a couple years between the end of the Revolutionary War and them joining the USA, yes parts of Texas, California and Florida were rump Republics for some short period of time before becoming part of the USA.
The method by which the USA originally took over Hawaii was not a legitimate and consensual one.
Hawaii is a majority non-white State, and there is considerable dislike of Whites and the White dominated government in DC.
There is an active Native Hawaiian political movement that seeks separation and restitution as key planks of their platform.
Hawaii is over 1000 miles from the continental USA. It's not part of the contiguous 48 states.
Hawaii was one of the two states admitted very recently.

There are of course lots of reasons why it would not or should not secede, including the fact that a free and fair election was held in 1959 to proceed with statehood.

Imagine our current administration, or one much like it, being confronted with a "Petition for Restoration of Independence". It would push all the libtard buttons! A discriminated minority! INDIANS!! Actual "Colonialism"! Not mention "Imperialism" and "Capitalism" as historic facts. Bitter clinging "Military Industrial Complex" bitterly clinging to their "guns and Naval bases".

It is inconceivable that a Left dominated FedGov would fail to grant such an application. And it's highly likely that even a GOP government would eventually accede to those demands, perhaps after getting a few long term military leases.

I have long thought that this is the most likely, and perhaps only, scenario in which secession is likely to occur.