Kentucky Derby

self | 5-7-2016 | supremedoctrine

[supremedoctrine]

I haven't found yet our usual FR Derby thread. I will start one,even though the race is a mere 5 hour away.

[supremedoctrine]

NYQUIST can be beat. Current odds are not yet updated from Morning Line. But I picked CREATOR (#3) on the basis of his amazing come-from-behind in the Arkansas Derby. This is a HUGE field of TWENTY, so even if NYQUIST wins, they payoffs are bound to be HUGE, if a few longshots manage to get in 2nd 3rd or 4th in a Superfecta bet (first 4 finishers) Longshots who could be upsetters are the 3 (Creator) who might be shorter than 10-1, Whitmore (#10) Suddenbreakingnews (#2) Trojan Nation (at 50-1 in the ML),My Man Sam (#6) with Irad Ortiz, my favorite jockey who is set to make a good showing of his skills in a major race, and who will get himself even more notoriety if his horse, MMSam, who is 20-1 in the ML, manages to upset the favorite Nyquist. NYQUIST knows how to win only one way, and that is on the lead. THIS Derby is FULL of closers, so NYQUIST will have to win on the front end , wire to wire. I doubt he can do it. NONE of these horses except longshot LANI #8, have ever gone that far. I still think CREATOR has the best shot to upset. Will probably be shorter than 8-1 though. Thanks for your time.

[Mr. Mojo]

Gun Runner.

[Pelham]

Nyquist

For back to back Triple Crowns

[nascarnation]

Long ago when I lived in Ohio, that’s what they called the race over the river to get cheaper low tax Kentucky cigarettes...

[Mears]

Gun Runner for me.

.

[RonPaulLives]

You beat me by about the length of a horse race! I was looking and looking, surprised that there were no threads about the Run for the Roses yet. Sadly, I am cubicle-bound at work today, although only about ten miles from legendary Churchill Downs. It's the first time I have had to work on Derby Day in at least 16 years. *Sigh*

The bettors still have Nyquist as the favorite currently, and I am surprised more of the "experts" are not talking him up. So there is no money to be made on him. I will go with (19) BRODY'S CAUSE, currently 22-1, (3) CREATOR, 16-1, and (5) GUN RUNNER, 10-1.

[capt. norm]

I always wanted make it a contact sport with a name change to "Kentucky Demolition Derby"

Most people would NOT like it, but the curiosity would make them tune it in.

[Mouton]

Saw nyquest win at delmar last sept. I am a bit concerned by the uncle mo breeding at this distance. But I like him for the win given only one horse in race has early speed.

If he falters some thing from just off the pace should win given the 20 horse Calvery charge.

[RonPaulLives]

Live updates to the track odds and results with video replays for today's entire race card at Churchill can be found here

[Moonman62]

This is a HUGE field of TWENTY, ...

It’s the Republican primary all over again.

[RonPaulLives]

Heh. It really is! And there is a lot of money to be made on this race: only (13) Nyquist and (11) Exaggerator are currently at lower than 10-1 odds!

[Duchess47]

I had my son place a bet for me on Creator, Gun Runner & Nyquist. I also like Mo Spirit.

None really jumped out at me this year like previous winners Animal Kingdom, California Chrome and American Pharoah.

Gun Runner is a beauty though.

[supremedoctrine]

Wouldn’t be surprised if any of the horses you mentioned won. ALSO Trojan Nation (who gets the #1 post), or even Danzig Candy on the far outside #20 post with the great Mike Smith aboard. HOWEVER, there is an angle for me that further underscores CREATOR, and this angle very nearly got me what woulda been a $60,000 superfecta some years back when the 50-1 horse I put fourth got beat out in the final strides by a 30-1 horse called imawildandcrazy guy. That horse was 29-1 and the super paid $29,000. MY pick for fourth was SEDGEFIELD, the longest price in the race and it was 7-8-2-1 right to the final sixteenth, with the horse that upset me coming on in the last strides to beat out Sedgefield. Sedgefield , I noticed , had ALWAYS gone out on his prep races on the far outside, and lost many lengths in these races, now he was inside. AND the fields he raced in were HUGE, so I did the math , and found that he had BEAT a huge number of horses, all added up. Better or equal to even the favorites in that particular Kentucky Derby. CREATOR has the same pattern with these huge fields he raced in. If you watch the Arkansas Derby he won, you will see what an amazing performance he put in. CREATOR finished ahead of SIXTY horses in his last 6 races. Always in big fields. He will upset NYQUIST today.

[Bratch]

They were heading in that direction until they wised up and decided to limit the field to 20 horses.

[supremedoctrine]

I made that exact joke at the beginning of the Republican primaries, saying it reminded me of the Kentucky Derby. So the question today is: Who is the DOnald Trump in this Derby? Could be CREATOR, Danzig Candy, My Man Sam, or 3 or 4 others, actually. NYQUIST might go off a pretty tepid favorite at 5-2 or so, but he can be beat.

[RonPaulLives]

Four hours to post time!

[Thom Pain]

Anybody know of any webcams @ churchill downs?

[supremedoctrine]

And let’s not overlook WHITMORE (#10) His jock is none other than Victor Espinoza, who is looking at his THIRD straight Kentucky Derby win. He will be tuned up beyond belief.And on paper he looks as good as anyone. He had a very wide trip in the Arkansas Derby and he bobbled at the start. I have a small win bet on him also.

[Joe Boucher]

Driving to the Derby as i type this
Sprinkling at this point
Uh oh

[mozarky2]

I’ll be going to a local OTB-all in for Majesto. Hope his mid-pack style will give an advantage over the late runners!