Thanks for the well-worded followup. I understand the reasoning, and it has validity in a way a blanket “the omnipotent Establishment” calls all the shots doesn’t.
I believe the Establishment will have control over 25-30% of the delegates, max. Some of these will get pressure to go Trump (northeast) or Cruz (west and south) from local activists who may not be delegates.
Right now, I suspect the 70% of the Establishment fears Trump more than Cruz, and they will go with the enemy they know rather than the enemy they don’t. Like a basketball team down 8 points in the closing seconds they are fouling just to keep the game alive, even as all moves means more delegates for an enemy.
They talk big, ESPECIALLY the Karl Rove types, right before the fall. The Tennessee problem you mention is disheartening (Cruz has decent organization there, too), and Ryan is not a good man for running the convention. We have seen how their predictions have played out so far. NO ONE knows how the first convention with full blown social media, a huge discontented class that cannot be all locked out, and two anti-establishment players with different strengths and committed followings at the same time will play out. It won’t be pretty. Early, I thought that the only way the all-out war could be avoided is if the Establishment was smart enough to meet us half-way and put its weight behind Scott Walker. But noooooo, they had to go all in with John Ellis Bush until all of the somewhat palatable alternatives (for them) were gone-zo. And here we are.
I don’t pretend to know what will happen, but I am personally unwilling to abandon a man I personally trust to shrink government and be consistently pro-life just yet. He has shown a determination to win, as does Trump. In this convention, it will be wise to have as many anti-establishment types who also happen to be decent parliamentarians available. Cruz can bring that. Trump may have some, but not as many.
I am SO looking forward to one of them coming to out of this convention as the Republican nominee, and for all of us to get together again.
I have marked your words. We will see.
Thanks for the cordial discussion. This place wouldn’t be worth the time if it were not for a healthy difference in points of view. I would be happy if ether of the front runners prevails; my fear is that what Rove and many others from the establishment has been signaling and that is that Ryan or someone just like him will get the nod from the rest of the party bosses. That can only mean disaster.