Some delegates are assigned by the local party. These delegates would likely be loyal to the GOPe after the first round of voting.
The other delegates are actually picked by the candidate and they should be loyal to the candidate after the first round of voting.
I don't know the percentage of delegates that are candidate picked and that are GOPe picked. It varies based on state.
Without that information at this point, I can't come to the conclusion that the establishment will win a contested convention.
Cruz should take the hint from Rove. If there is no nominee going into the convention, the convention won’t select Cruz or Trump. That ‘new face’ comment from Rove was a warning shot to Cruz.
The problem is that the GOPestablishment don’t really care if they lose to Hillary. As many of them have said, they would rather lose to Hillary than have Trump or Cruz as their nominee.
Exactly,
Cruz will NEVER be the candidate unless the GOP-e decides that Loosing big in 2016 will keep them in power.
The Republican nominee will Cruz, Trump or Kasich. Choosing a standard-bearer who has not campaigned all the way through the primaries would be unacceptable to the GOP’s rank and file.
Yes, I agree with that assessment. I wish it were not so but there it is.
On the first round the delegates are allowed to abstain from voting.
So all bets are off now.
My guess is the next Potus has already been chosen and the FBI has been told to leave her alone.
What I am wondering about now is how far it could go from riots to complete anarchy as I know the Bernie folk are gonna be super angry too.
It is not up to the supporters of other candidates to "fall in line" - it is up to Trump to persuade them he is worthy of their support. Up until now, he has been failing miserably at that challenge.
Cruz is delusional to think he won’t be cast aside at the convention.
He may have also been threatened.
1. Ted’s health insurance is via his wife’s job at Goldman Sachs. She’s the money maker in the family.
2. He needs donations. The establishment could primary Ted and knock him out of a job.
3. They might have details on the cheating scandal to hold over him.
Cruz and Kasich are both tools, they know it, but they both don’t mind being used to manipulate the race for the establishment. Of the two, Kasich is the most likely real choice of the establishment, but Cruz, for all his talk of being an “outsider” is really an insider. They’ll pick Cruz over Trump, because they know that he’ll play ball with them, whereas they suspect that Trump would be less easily controlled.
So how about this scenario - Rubio has not released his delegates, so still controls them for the first ballot. Suppose Trump and Rubio were to strike a deal, with Trump offering Rubio VP for his support on the first ballot.
If Trump has 1066 delegates or more, but falls short of the 1237, Trump plus Rubio delegates puts Trump over the top. Their combined delegate strength would also put them in control of any rules changes at the convention, blocking establishment attempts to name their own choice.
Nope, I am voting from Cruz. I have liked him from the beginning, but it took me a while to settle on him as my choice. I needed to see how it would play out with all the other candidates. Cruz is getting my vote in the Washington State primary and he will get my vote if he wins the nomination. Trump will never get my vote.
I call BS. As someone who supported and voted for Tedzu, I am looking at supporting Trump. I actually have gotten rather ticked off at some of Cruz’s antics (like agreeing with the lamestream media that Trump Supporters are violent, when in fact it is the Democrat Rioters/Protesters that are causing problems.) So I would say I’ve not lost Cruz, Cruz lost me.
Cruz supporters are certainly voting for a Canadian.... or a Cuban.... Certainly not for a natural born citizen.
But hey, he’s our guy so screw the founding fathers.... they didnt know crap anyway!