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To: Alas Babylon!

The primaries are higher, but primaries are a view into the more politically active. The dynamic of a two person race is different from one with several. Also, primary numbers are small in comparison to the general.

Even if the trend of higher total turnout carries over, what about the negative numbers? Wouldn’t they carry over as well? And what happens in a two person race due to the low second choice numbers? Will those primary voters stay home in the general?


121 posted on 03/05/2016 9:55:21 AM PST by 5thGenTexan
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To: 5thGenTexan

My point was not so much analyzing the trends and comparing to past elections, but rather noting how different this election is.

The results of your thoughtful analysis would normally have Trump finished by this point (given the negatives and low second choices), yet he handedly leads in delegates so far and is the leader in all the GOP polls.

I’m just not sure it is following a pattern anyone recognizes, and therefore, can accurately predict.


127 posted on 03/05/2016 10:28:14 AM PST by Alas Babylon! (I voted~~TRUMP!)
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