Posted on 03/01/2016 7:36:31 PM PST by Citizen Zed
Trump leads in our forecasts in every state but Texas. But Rubio has been a little closer to Trump in what we call the “polls-plus” version of the model (as opposed to the “polls-only” version). That’s because the polls-plus version accounts for endorsements, where Rubio leads the GOP pack. This factor doesn’t hurt Trump as much as you might think, however, in part because Trump has started to pick up a few endorsements of his own. Furthermore, the model weights endorsements partly based on how recently they were made. When endorsements are weighted by recency category, Trump has actually moved up to second, behind Rubio but ahead of Cruz and Kasich.
It’s important to keep in mind that Trump’s share of endorsements is still unusually low given how well he’s done in the voting so far. But the factor is no longer the negative for him in our model that it once was.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I can’t wait till I vote next week.
L
Endorsements always mystify me. How can you be so non-ego formed as an adult as to get another grown up to tell you who you should support?
Politicians, holy men, newspaper editors, etc. Hell, id barely have any of them to tell me what to have for dinner.
it's unusually low, if he were a politician. It's a new game now. All bets are off.
Oh BS Trump was ahead the whole time,, the endorsements had almost nothing to do with the results
I’d say he’s had some very pivotal endorsements, and at very good times. It’s helped solidify people who are leaning, and it’s definitely helped with the news cycle. His Christie endorsement totally changed the news cycle the day after an iffy debate. They are running a spectacular campaign.
Long hisotry of the Cristies seeing which way the bandwagon is going and trying get on and claim credit.
Pretty soon Nate Silver will tell us his model worked.
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