Replies

I disagree. Each electorate has different voting groups and at least one other consideration. For instance, Trump, despite being the big favorite in polls with Republicans at consistently around 35%, is losing 65% of the Republican votes. Trump's support seems firm but not expanding. One big reason the-other-than-Trump vote is not bigger is because five or more other candidates are splitting that vote. Trump supporters assume that as the field narrows he'll start to gain even more of that 65%. I doubt that because of the sheer nastiness of Trump and his flagrant dilettantism. But if the field stays crowded he could obviously win based on his solid support.

The electorate and pool of voters in the general election is very different. We all know this. It may be then that Trump basically dumps the conservatives if he's the nominee as he moves to the middle to expand his voters. If all that matters is winning, he could easily betray the recently adopted principles he barely knows now. Otherwise, he's not a very strong candidate as he's become a man who is either considered a joke or someone to loath among the vast majority of Americans. He is, I think, well known, so he has that advantage. But he's harmed his brand with his temperament, demeanor, wild statements, in-your-face behavior, etc. More later ....