“Sitting pretty” is an odd choice of words for someone who leads the last three polls by an average of 26-23-19, given the extreme volatility of the race, the problematic internals, and the very clear banking on moderates.
By problematic internals, I mean this:
The PURPOSE of caucuses, instead of primaries, is to reach a bit of a consensus, or at least consensus voting blocks. 35-40% of Iowans, the majority of those who don’t already back him, say they could never back him. (28% say they’d never say that about ANY candidate.) And Rubio’s and Carson’s support levels are very soft, and they favor Cruz 2.5-1 over Trump.
Add to that that Trump is losing among people who’ve voted in caucuses before, and there is no sign from registration stats that there will be many first-timers, and Trump isn’t looking so hot.
You could be right.
We shall see.
I remain optimistic for a 7 point win by Trump, but if you turn out to be right, then I will eat crow.
Of course in your world there are no negatives for Cruz at all. Ok...
#2 there was a story on here just today that the local GOP was receiving a massive amount of new registration to the tune of hundreds an hour.
#3 there will be peel off of soft Cruz support to Rubio. Tons of evidence of this the past two days.
And no there is no vote and revote to get to some magical number. The numbers fall where they do.