/ducks
Posted on 01/07/2016 5:05:15 PM PST by conservativejoy
So the average Joe gets to pay way, way more at the store and gets to worry about losing his job after China inevitably retaliates with tariffs of its own, shrinking foreign demand for U.S. goods? That sounds like a plan.
Four years ago, when Trump flirted with running for president, he suggested a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods. Now it’s 45 percent. Is that based on an economic calculation or is it just Trump getting a little crazier with the protectionist cheez whiz to prove he's more populist now than ever?
"The only power that we have with China," Mr. Trump said, "is massive trade."...
"I would do a tax. and the tax, let me tell you what the tax should be ...the tax should be 45 percent," Mr. Trump said.
China is on a path this year to surpass Canada as the biggest single trading partner of the United States, and its factories provide American consumers with lower-cost products ranging from clothing to computers, so such steep tariffs could hurt the pocketbooks of many Americans.
This CNN Money piece from 2011 concisely addresses the weak points in the tariff idea. If Trump is eyeing it as a bluff, to scare China into ending its currency manipulation, that's one high-stakes bluff. Would China's leadership bow to an overt economic threat from a new U.S. president upon his taking office, knowing what kind of signal that would send about Chinese resolve towards America? If they call President Alpha Male's bluff, then he has no choice but to implement the tariff and the trade war is on. And as the CNN piece explains, a U.S. market that's effectively closed to Chinese imports wouldn't necessarily turn to U.S. manufacturers and U.S. workers to fill the void. More likely it’d turn to other developing economies with lower labor costs to supply those cheap goods. Result: Tension with China, pain for American manufacturers who'd suddenly find the Chinese market closed to them, and less than what was promised by Trump about a revival in American manufacturing. (China could also challenge the tariff in the WTO, but I assume Caesar Trump would pull the U.S. out of that if the ruling didn't go his way.) As for whether this represents good, old-fashioned "conservative" economics, let's not even bother analyzing it. We're well past that point of Trumpmania now.
Here's something else to raise an eyebrow from Trump's meeting with the NYT editorial board today:
In addressing the Oregon standoff, Mr. Trump also spoke about the "great anger out there" that appears to be fueling the situation in Burns, Ore.
"I think what I'd do, as president, is I would make a phone call to whoever, to the group," he said, adding later, "I'd talk to the leader. I would talk to him and I would say, 'You gotta get out - come see me, but you gotta get out.'"
"You cannot let people take over federal property," Mr. Trump said. "You can't, because once you do that, you don't have a government anymore. I think, frankly, they've been there too long."
President Trump would directly negotiate with people who are illegally occupying federal property? That's an incentive for every radical across the spectrum to create hostage situations, knowing that the president's direct involvement in resolving it would be a huge media spotlight for their cause. If Black Lives Matter seized a federal office somewhere tomorrow and Obama decided to speak with them directly, we'd be killing him today for legitimizing the takeover by granting them a presidential audience. Trump's smart enough to understand that, but his ego's too big to let him absorb the lesson. Because he's convinced of his own supreme competence in all situations, he thinks that him talking directly to Ammon Bundy would obviously be the easiest way to end the standoff expeditiously. As for what he means by "they've been there too long," he told the Times that he wasn't necessarily calling for military action but that "at a certain point you have to do something." Er, like what? Obama and his deputies have played the Oregon standoff smartly by waiting Bundy and his crew out; a new Ruby Ridge would be a disaster for all sides. As it is, by being patient, the feds have put Bundy in a position where he’s already talking about leaving voluntarily at some point. Trump, forever impelled to "show strength," might choose the Ruby Ridge option simply because he couldn't tolerate the perception of weakness in strategic patience.
Via Andrew Stiles, here's Trump floating the tariff idea back in 2011. If you're at work, be advised that there's an F-bomb (actually, an MF-bomb) to come. Here again you see the core of Trumpism at work: The tariff might not work if a guy with a high-pitched feminine voice is pushing it, but if President Alpha Male pushes it, those puppies in Beijing will roll over and let him scratch their bellies. There are no tough guys in China's brutal authoritarian top tier, after all.
Trump can’t levy tariffs anyway as President, but it will take decades to rebuild our manufacturing. I think there are ways to do it without shutting of a large export market like China.
Keep in mind that this "biggest trade partner" business is heavily one sided. China sells lots of stuff over here, we don't sell nearly as much over there.
Gen Blather, you deserve a better name.
I’ll call you Gen. Not Blathering.
/ducks
... The President can’t raise tariffs anyway, but what does it tell you that Trump thinks he can?
Magic pen?
A 45 % tariff on Chinese goods is a terrible idea....
Penalize them for currency manipulate instead of just talking about it..
Force them onto a level playing field to do fair trade...
China is our 3rd largest export market. We export to them mostly petroleum, cars, planes, helicopters space craft, and medicine.
THANK YOU! Finally a voice of reason and reality!
Much of this has to do with the Chinese manipulation of its currency. Its really quite simple. Before Clinton pushed to give China most favored nation status, we had many unfair trade cases against China. Does anyon remember the China steel dumping cases of the late 80’s? Business school made me a “free trade” person. The realities of international trade made me less so. We get screwed in more ways than you will ever know.
Go to WalMart and check where everything you buy is made. Now add 45% to your total at the register.
We all do. But the current situation is so one sided - theirs - that it's comical.
This crap was all sold to us starting back in 1980 as a way to get "a billion new customers".
That was crap and they knew it. They plan to buy NOTHING from us. If they want something, they'll steal the plans - or someone will just take the plant over there for them.
Most Favored Nation status for thugs who kidnap journalists in broad daylight? Even Putin hides that kind of crap.
Speaking of which, if we're going to sign idiot trade deals with gangster states just to keep them mollified, why not focus on Russia? It's a European nation, has real nuclear threats that we want to keep at bay. Maybe they'll stop occupying their neighbors and flattening Ukrainian villages. Anyone can be bought, especially Russians. It's the way they do business....
The fact is that we send less than $9 Billion a month in trade goods to China and import more than $45 Billion. They have lots more to fear of us than we do of them. Much of the goods we send them are raw materials they need for production and electricity, primarily steam and metallurgical coal. Without our coal they would suffer immeasurably by having to import from other sources.
We can absorb that loss of trade with a slight head shack and fart. They would collapse without two things
The American Market and The U.S. Navy protecting their trade routes.
They would fold like a cheap suit and if they didn't so be it, they will collapse. They are already in a deep recession!
Complaining about cheap Chinese goods coming into America is as dumb as complaining about sale prices at your favorite retailer. I want the Chinese to lower the cost of their goods even more!
Um, not while we have the highest corp. tax rate in the world, unionization, EPA, OSHA, OCare, etc.
If not China, it’ll move to India or....
Not until govt gets OUT of the way would any biz even THINK of coming back so we could produce ‘our own’.
Trump: The Art of the Deal.
This is an opening gambit.
I’m sure Wal-Mart could look elsewhere for products which it now buys from China
The Chinese Navy is currently bigger than ours. Wouldn’t it be better to take measures to stop Chinese currency manipulation rather than cut off our third largest export market? How many people would be out of work and for how long before manufacturing could be restored to employ them here?
If China cuts off imports from America- no big deal. If China cuts off exports to America, they’ll last about 10 weeks.
Yeah, 190 billion a year in exports is peanuts.
Yes their one planned Aircraft carrier is frightening.
If they had a true blue water navy they could protect their own trade. They don’t. Instead they use it to build new Islands in the South China Sea.
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