Trump is attacking Hillary. That's good for him, and bad for her.
Cruz and Rubio are fighting with each other, but pretty much ignoring Trump, like they are fighting for second place. They are both hurting themselves and each other. Mutual Assured Destruction.
Jeb is fighting with Trump, who either dismisses him or ignores him. That's helping Trump, and hurting himself, as he looks more and more inconsequential (his strategy mirror's Lindsey's and is about as effective).
Christie is targeting Jeb, and seems to be doing pretty well with it, and is now being seen as possible third place candidate in New Hampshire.
The only person really taking on Trump is Bernie Sanders! That is great for Bernie, and also good for Trump (because Bernie is not taken seriously by most people, only his far-left socialist base).
Weird election dynamics at this point.
Who drops out next?
Who quits after New Hampshire?
* Santorum and Huck could should quit after Iowa. That was their base, for both of them, and bottom of the pack there means their campaigns are over. I can't see either staying past New Hampshire, and that would be face saving.
* Carly has no where to go. She should exit after NH.
* Rand Paul's best state is probably NH. Anything other than a top three finish and he should quit. He's unlikely to be in the top three, so it will probably mark his exit too.
* Kasich will be finishing behind Jeb and Christie in New Hampshire. What's his path to victory? What is his rationale for remaining in the race?
If Kasich finishes fifth or sixth and stays in what you are seeing is candidates playing for a brokered convention, in my estimation.
Kasich could, conceivably, win a brokered convention.
* Jeb stays in until Florida, and perhaps further, if he finishes top 2 there.
* Rubio stays in as long as he's in the top four, hoping Jeb bows out first. He's likely to pick up a lot of votes from whoever does leave after New Hampshire, and so get a little mini-boom going into Super Tuesday.
* Cruz and Trump are in until the convention, regardless.
He's currently 4th nationally, so it's strange expecting him to exit before Bush and Christie, but he has less of a chance of getting to the nomination than either of them, in my opinion.
How many 4th place finishes do you need, before you admit it's not happening? Carson will never win a brokered convention.
*I'll say exit after South Carolina for Carson.
” Cruz and Rubio are fighting with each other, but pretty much ignoring Trump, like they are fighting for second place. They are both hurting themselves and each other. Mutual Assured Destruction. “
My read is that Cruz is trying to vacuum up votes from all the candidates other than Trump. Enough of those, and he’ll get a plurality, if not a majority. Rubio is trying to claw his way up to second place, and deal with Trump when and if he gets there.
Good analysis. My guess is it will be clear that anyone left after South Carolina is running for Trump’s VP slot, and Cruz will have the clear lead in that race.