Bob Dole and W won Iowa on their way to the nomination. Romney damn near did (was actually the announced winner on election night) without even trying. So, 3 out of the last 4 Republican caucuses led to the eventual nominee. On the D side, Iowa has been the site of big wins for Carter, Mondale, Gore, Kerry, and Obama. And losing Iowa can be devistating, as Howard Dean and Mitt Romney (’08) can attest. Howard Dean should be an especially cautionary tale to Trump, as Iowa showed just how thin his support with “real” voters turned out to be.
So is Iowa the be-all, end-all? No, of course not - but it ain’t exactly the Carrol County Fair Corn Poll, either.