I disagree that victory was assured. Nothing is assured in war. And if they had been able to punch through and push as far as Paris, then what? It was important to prosecute the war in the manner they did and hold the Nazis at Bastogne. If they hadn’t, how much longer would the war have gone on? It cost less live for both sides in the end.
I know you agree that Bastogne was an important battle and that we cannot fight the “what ifs” but I do not believe all was assured.
They were pushing for Antwerp. FWIW Patton jokenly suggested that they allow the Germans to advance to Paris in order to mopp them up quicker on the flanks.
I agree with you.
Through the lens of history, we can state that victory was all but assured by December, 1944, but at that time, it was not so clear.
There was great concern when the German forces began their assault against the relatively thin American lines in the Ardennes, and immediate success was achieved by the Wehrmacht and SS armor groups. Notably, Kampfgruppe Peiper’s rapid advance towards Antwerp.
Of course, we know now that it petered out, but at that time, it was not known, nor accepted widely, that it would peter out, eventually.
George Patton agreed with you; other generals, Omar Bradley included, were not expecting the Ardennes Offensive and was flat footed. Patton had plans in hand, as he understood in war, until it is over, it ain’t over.
Ironically, as Jon Toland shared in his book, the initial heavy casualties we suffered in the Battle of the Bulge were a blessing. By the Germans coming out of their bunkers and attacking in open ground, many generals and historians believed there were much fewer casualties and we were able to march on Germany much quicker then if we would have had to battle through their bunkers. I highly recommend Battle: The Story of the Bulge by Jon Toland. He wrote the book much earlier then many of the later ones by Steve Ambrose and others. Very informative , great heroic stories from first hand accounts. Midway and the Bulge were probably the two biggest swing battles and they were won almost entirely by US troops, unlike Normandy when it was a coalition of forces.
You're right about never knowing for sure, but many people in the know, like Churchill, thought Hitler's hash was settled after he declared war on the U.S. It was like an excellent heavyweight boxer deciding to fight three equally tough fighters at the same time. The final result was inevitable.
The only thing that might have saved Hitler would maybe have been if he had a sufficient supply and much more powerful V2 rockets. The Allies had nothing like that. Even Germany's use of jet planes wouldn't have been a deciding factor as the Allies were pushing them into production during the late stages of the war.
Hitler just took on too much. He underestimated the production capabilities, the manpower, and the determination of the Allies to see him dead.
The question is also, how much more territory would the Russkies have acquired if Hitler’s attack in the West had more success?