[US Navy Vet]

1. What would have happened if Hitler had listened to his Generals and authorized a withdraw; from Stalingrad in 1941-1842? 2. What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963? 3. What would have happened if Lincoln had not gone to Ford's Theatre in 1865? 4. What would have happened if President Reagan would have replaced George HW Bush as his VP with a Conservative in 1984?

OK Have at it!

[US Navy Vet]

1942

[dhs12345]

What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?

IMO, Kennedy would have been blamed for Vietnam instead of Johnson. Opinions of Kennedy would be different.

[Vendome]

They wouldn’t have bombed Pearl Harbor and we might not have gone to war....

[PGR88]

Stalingrad? Doesn’t matter. War was on, and headed towards ultimate conclusion. Hitler merely would have had some extra soldiers to put into the meat grinders later on

[Purdue77]

Even better thought experiment: what if Hitler hadn’t attacked Russia, at all, and had instead saved that energy for attacking Great Britain.

Withdrawing from Stalingrad wouldn’t have changed much. The soldiers that died at Stalingrad would have died on the march home. The Russians would still have pounded Germany from the East and the Allies would have pounded them from the west. The timing is all that would have changed.

[chajin]

1. What would have happened if Hitler had listened to his Generals and authorized a withdraw; from Stalingrad in 1941-1942?

The war would probably have ended in 1945 anyway, but the battle for France in 1944 would have been much bloodier.

2. What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?

JFK would have defeated whoever the GOP nominee would have been. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 would have been passed, but the Great Society would have occurred more incrementally.

3. What would have happened if Lincoln had not gone to Ford's Theatre in 1865?

He would have been assassinated somewhere else, or he would have died of natural causes a la FDR; he was already showing the effects of being CinC during the war.

4. What would have happened if President Reagan would have replaced George HW Bush as his VP with a Conservative in 1984?

Impossible to tell without knowing whom it would be; there were very few true conservatives who would have had a power base of his/her own at the time. To have any effect, it would have to have been someone who came up through the ranks, not one of the rich-family mandarins, and in 1984 there weren't many such people.

[Leaning Right]

As to your question #1, I don't think it would have made much difference, one way or the other. By late 1942, many German generals on the Eastern Front had privately realized that they were in a war of attrition with the Soviets, and that was a war Germany could not win.

So here's my question instead: Suppose that in the fall of 1941 Hitler had chosen to drive straight for Moscow, instead of just advancing in that direction, and then later turning south?

Stalin had refused to leave the capital, so the Germans might have bagged Uncle Joe himself.

[Pollster1]

What would have happened if a slumdog millionaire socialist brat from the streets of Indonesia had not stolen the identity of an obscure baby allegedly born in Hawaii back in 1961?

My answer: The democrat fraud machine would have elected a different America-hating communist in 2008 and 2012. After the foolishness of the past 50 years, we were due for this mistake, and removing one corrupt thug would have made no difference.

As for if Hitler had allowed the withdrawal from Stalingrad, he would have again been overly impressed with his brilliance and invincibility and would have ordered other, equally stupid, military decisions.

If JFK had skipped Dallas? The sniper would have found another book depository, grassy knoll, or other hide. The FBI and Secret Service didn’t know he was gunning for JFK; he would have found the shot another time.

If Lincoln had skipped Ford’s Theater? Again, Booth, or another person who hated him for being too tough on the South or not tough enough, would have shot him somewhere else.

It’s hard to stop dedicated individuals or large social trends by changing a single event.

[ChinaGotTheGoodsOnClinton]

What if Hitler was assinated?
What if Hannibal attacked Rome?
What if Sparticus had of escaped?

[fella]

"What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?"

LBJ would have just got him someplace else.

[Navy Patriot]

I have a better one for you:

What if the Italian mob had taken out the entire Kennedy family in the 1930's, and smuggled whiskey from Canada themselves?

[dfwgator]

What if the Central Powers won WWI? No Hitler, No Holocaust.

[Bloody Sam Roberts]

What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?

He would have been assassinated in some other city.

[Crusher138]

1. May have delayed the Nazi defeat long enough for them to develop a nuclear bomb. May also have freed up enough time and resources for them to mass produce some of the other advanced weaponry they had in the pipeline.

2. Kennedy was a dead man walking. He had Addison’s disease, which at that time would have led to mental instability and eventual death. Some speculate he was killed so we could have a martyr - why let a death sentence go to waste?

3. Lincoln was a dead man walking. So many wanted him dead, and there was no secret service protection at that time, that it was only a matter of time.

4. That would very much depend on the conservative that he chose.

[Rockingham]

1. What would have happened if Hitler had listened to his Generals and authorized a withdraw from Stalingrad in 1941-1842?

The Germans might then have won the Battle of Kursk the following summer and broken the strength of Soviet striking power. Yet, had the Nazi regime lasted through the summer of 1945, Germany would have experienced the first A bomb attack instead of Japan. Germany's eventual defeat was assured because of the Allies' combined strength and determination.

2. What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?

He probably would have been killed elsewhere by the end of the year. This assumes that Oswald was part of a conspiracy that had the capacity to make repeated attempts on Kennedy's life.

3. What would have happened if Lincoln had not gone to Ford's Theatre in 1865?

The erratic Booth would have missed his chance and, under Lincoln, the South would have experienced a more conciliatory Reconstruction.

4. What would have happened if President Reagan would have replaced George HW Bush as his VP with a Conservative in 1984?

Not only would the political success of a conservative successor to Reagan be uncertain, but it is not at all clear that a suitable conservative VP was available. That, more or less, is why Bush was kept on as V-P in 1984. That was the safe, low risk choice.

[Demiurge2]

Here’s a big, likely one I rarely see discussed. December, 1941. The Japanese bomb Pearl, and the US goes to war with them. A few days later, Hitler decides to join the pile on and declares war on the US himself.
What if Germany hadn’t declared war? The US populace was mad as hell at Japan, and wanted it to be our top war priority. Yea, we’d have likely ended up at war with Hitler eventually, but what if Adolph kept his cool and declared strict neutrality (maybe even offering some back channel intelligence help to the US)?

[<1/1,000,000th%]

Kennedy would’ve been killed somewhere else. Castro spent a lot of time and money on his assassination.

[SunkenCiv]

1. What would have happened if Hitler had listened to his Generals and authorized a withdraw; from Stalingrad in 1941-1842?
   • Historically, the III Battle of Kharkhov was a massive defeat of the Red Army, and stopped dead its advance.
   • Hitler, always on the lookout for the wrong move to make, was convinced that the residue of that advance, the Kursk salient, was an affront to German prestige before all the world.
   • Von Manstein told him the time to launch the counteroffensive was right away, before the Reds had the time to build defense in depth. Hitler overruled him, said the offensive would take place in the summer.
   • Just to ice the cake, Hitler pulled three divisions out of the preparations and sent them to Italy, where the terrain was more than sufficient. The allied objectives in Italy had been reached when those 13 airfields in the south had been taken.
   • In reality, the Battle of Kursk is what broke the Wehrmacht, not the Battle of Stalingrad. Both defeats were the result of a power-hungry jackass with no grasp of strategy or tactics.
   • Had the commander at Stalingrad pulled out contrary to orders, he'd have been punished, probably executed, but his army would have survived.
   • The defeat of the Red Army at Kharkhov III would still have taken place, and the Kursk salient wouldn't have become a problem, probably wouldn't have existed.
   • At the very least, the end of the war would have been greatly delayed, and it's not unlikely that a German counter in Italy would have been made with much greater force and effect, the airfields retaken, and the Romanian targets of those allied bombers put out of reach.
   • However, in 1945, after the Battle of Okinawa in the Pacific Theater, the first nuclear weapon would have been dropped on Berlin.
   • The Red Army would have been through another full year of mauling, and have gained no significant amount of ground.
   • The German armed forces would still be more or less intact.
   • Stalin would not have had so much leverage (or occupied territory) during the late wartime conferences or in postwar Europe.
   • The ceasefire, armistice, and treaty would have seen a staged demilitarization in Europe, and fewer redrawn borders.
   • During the late 1940s, von Braun's space program would have orbited a human; during the 1950s, there would have been a series German moon landings. In the 1970s, and prior to von Braun's death, human missions to Mars would have taken place.
   • Meanwhile, a greatly depleted USSR would have been more involved in the politics and military struggles in China.
   • The US would have still wound up in Korea and Vietnam.
   • The British and French empires still would have been devolved, and by 1970 the EEC would have evolved into something similar to the EU, but Germany would be part of one bloc, and the UK and France would be part of another.
2. What would have happened if Kennedy had not gone to Dallas in 1963?
   • He was killed by the Mob, they'd have kept trying until they got him.
3. What would have happened if Lincoln had not gone to Ford's Theatre in 1865?
   • John Wilkes Booth and his fellow retards would have drunk themselves to death.
4. What would have happened if President Reagan would have replaced George HW Bush as his VP with a Conservative in 1984?
   • What if people had shown up to vote for GHWB instead of ushering in eight years of Clinton, which have only been eclipsed by Zero's terms?

[x]

The Lincoln and Kennedy assassinations were such shocks to the country (and in Kennedy's case to the world) that one can't assume that somebody else would have killed them somewhere else if Booth or Oswald hadn't.

I suspect if Lincoln or Kennedy hadn't been assassinated, they'd just have succumbed to the inertia and mess of politics. They'd grow frustrated at their inability to do what they wanted to do and the country would grow frustrated with them.

Lincoln would be stuck between those who wanted major changes in the South and those who didn't. It would be hard to please either camp and impossible to satisfy both. Lincoln wouldn't have been as disastrous as Andrew Johnson, but he would have faced immense difficulties and the strain alone might well have killed him.

Similarly, Kennedy would have some achievements but wouldn't have been able to pass all the legislation that LBJ did. He would have gone into Vietnam and stayed, but wouldn't have committed as many men or as much money as Johnson did. The country would grow sick of him, though not as much as the did with Johnson. Whether his East Coast liberal base would stick with him or desert him is harder to say.

If you're interested in stuff like this, Jeff Greenfield does a lot of counterfactual history. I'm not really impressed. Basically, the idea is that if something in politics didn't happen when it did, it would have happened four or eight years later.

[x]

Reagan was a realist. He knew what was possible in politics. He knew what he could do and what he couldn't and what it would take to achieve his goals. Most likely, he would have stuck with Bush.

What would happen when the conservative VP became POTUS in 1988? It might not have happened. There was no guarantee such a person would win the presidential race -- especially if somebody other than Dukakis ran against him -- and no guarantee he'd even win the nomination. Probably Bush ran a stronger campaign than Kemp or Laxalt or some other conservative alternative would have.

But of course, if Reagan had picked a conservative VP who went on to run for president, we probably wouldn't think of that politician as a conservative at all. Either he'd lose and be a loser who wasn't conservative enough. Or he'd win and not be a conservative because of all the compromises he'd have to make to win and govern (and because he wasn't Ronald Reagan).