[InterceptPoint]

Here is the most recent RCP average. To qualify for the Big Boys and Big Girl Debate you need a score of 2.5 on the CNBC version of this poll average. To make it to the Little Boy's Debate you need to score a 1.0.

So, right now we would have Christie just skating in and Paul just missing. So the Little Boy's Debate would just be Rand Paul all by himself. But, given the current trends, Huckabee and Christie are likely to fall into the debate with Paul. Kasich, who has not been polling well lately could easily join them. So the best case for the Main Debate is Trump-Carson-Fiorina-Rubio-Bush-Cruz. That's 6. That would be OK with me. And Jindal, Santorum, Graham and Pataki get to stay home and watch their campaigns go yet further down the drain on Live Teeee Veeee.

[Mr. Jeeves]

That chart shows a very clear, natural cut-off point at 5% to divide the two debate fields. I would bet that if Cruz were at 4.9% that is exactly what we would see. But he’s a little too high to drop, so they need to dilute his message by including as many candidates as possible. :)