747 will be with us another 50 years. What we will see with the 747 is just an upgrade of using carbon fiber in place of aluminum. The aerostructure is excellent. It is an efficient and flexible platform for both transport and cargo. I am 40 years old. I am confident in predicting that the 747 will still be on the assembly line when God calls me home, at least another 50 years I hope.
You can not change aerodynamics or physics. You can use them, but you can’t change them. What you can change is the structural elements (carbon fiber versus aluminum) and manufacturing methods. The 747 nailed it for its’ use. The 777 and 787 have their uses too as long range transports. But the 747 will maintain its dominance as a long range heavy lift wide body. Nothing will beat it in my lifetime. NOTHING.
Signed,
Opie...
(recovering aircraft engineer)
I’m not sure a composite handles the hump well. I’m in avionics, not structures, so take with a grain of salt.