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To: BenLurkin
In a deeply reported article for The New Yorker, Kathryn Schulz tells the tale of how this fault lies dormant for periods of 243 years, on average, before unleashing monstrous tremors. The Pacific Northwest is 72 years overdue for the next quake, which is expected to be between 8.0 and 9.2 in magnitude.

This fearmongering nincompoop Schulz, is a science moron. Embarrassing, even.

Jonathan Gruber is not the only scam artist capitalizing on the utter ignorance of the American public

Saying nonsense like "we are 72 years overdue for the next quake" displays total misunderstanding and science incompetence of statistics and probability.

Natural catastrophic events never occur on a schedule, and saying "we are 72 years overdue' is an absurdity, when applied to events uccuring over tens or hundreds of thousands of years.

26 posted on 07/15/2015 5:36:40 PM PDT by publius911 (If you like Obamacare, You'll LOVE ObamaWeb.)
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To: publius911

“Thanks to that work, we now know that the Pacific Northwest has experienced forty-one subduction-zone earthquakes in the past ten thousand years. If you divide ten thousand by forty-one, you get two hundred and forty-three, which is Cascadia’s recurrence interval: the average amount of time that elapses between earthquakes.”

“Counting from the earthquake of 1700, we are now three hundred and fifteen years into a two-hundred-and-forty-three-year cycle.

It is possible to quibble with that number. Recurrence intervals are averages, and averages are tricky: ten is the average of nine and eleven, but also of eighteen and two. It is not possible, however, to dispute the scale of the problem.”


118 posted on 07/16/2015 1:09:14 PM PDT by Ozark Tom
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