“classic battle of Guns versus Butter that all Great Powers in decline have faced”
A stark factor here is that our huge military strength makes us desirable as an investment safe haven: thus reducing our borrowing costs- the money we borrow for the butter. There are many other economic benefits of a dominant military we will lose, which will also raise the cost of ‘butter’.
I’m sure this spiral has been discussed of previous great powers’ decline.
Cutting guns is also cutting butter in a case of debtedness such as ours.
It is much more difficult politically to sell reductions in the welfare state. Almost half of the population of the country receives a government check or benefit. 70 million on Medicaid, 53 million on SS and Medicare, 47 million on food stamps, etc.
Our military has been in decline for some time. We couldn't do the Gulf War today. We used to structure our forces on the so-called Two War criteria. That has been reduced significantly. The military will do what the civilian leadership wants.