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I know you predict a flop for the Apple watch, but this seems all too familiar to the pre-phone so called smart phone market.

I was an early smart phone adopter - I owned ‘em all. I too, wondered why the iPhone would be different, after all, it was far inferior to the phone i owned at the time, the Sony Ericsson P800. I mean, the P800 had a detachable hard keypad, touch screen, better battery life, and on and on....but what it didn’t have was good software, and an eco-system.

I predict Apple will sell more smart watches than all the competitors put together.

If, for example only 2 or 3 out of 100 iPhone (worldwide) buys the thing on a lark then they will sell MILLIONS, which is of course more than anyone else has managed.

Also, iPhone is “where the money” is at. The average in phone purchases are iPhone vs Android or Windows Phone is a multiple of 3-5x.

And if apple gets a few more iterations (maybe 3) they can dominate the market they create.

I think apple suffers from high expectations. everybody thinks they have it completely evolved before they introduce it. :)

They need this to succeed, and while I’m not in the market (nor will I ever be, unless they put a Star Trek style food replicator in there) or have a cent to spend on such stuff, I’d be surprised if it doesn’t take off at least a little bit. Where they beat the world is 1) integrating their different platforms and 2) profit margins. The seemingly endless market share decline for the Apple phones led to the current situation, where Apple has most of the profits of the entire smart phone business, and second place is noplace at all. :’)

I’ll wait on the watch. But there’s something to be said for it. It may actually be a good paring with the IPhone. We will see.

While speaking of watches:

My next door neighbor purchased a Hublot watch for $18K. It stopped working after 2 months. He took it back to the jeweler, who sent it out for repair. The US company sent it back to Europe, where it stayed for TWO MONTHS.

I kept asking him “What time is it?” just to see him cringe.

Watches are so last century.