Posted on 03/05/2015 7:28:24 PM PST by Ben Mugged
Here is one reason the GOP has a real challenge to win the Presidency in 2016
The large majority of big cities in the US, most with high minority populations, lean Democrat. These cities, with obviously large populations, are in in states with large numbers of Electoral College votes – taking the state almost certainly Democrat.
There are at most 100 Electoral College votes in “swing states”. The Democratic candidate for President is almost assured of 191 EC votes going into the election while the GOP candidate is assured of only about 129. Thus the Democrat needs only EC 79 votes to win, while the GOP candidate must pick up 141.
As a result, the U.S. is unlikely to have a Republican President any time in the near future barring a massive move toward the GOP.
I have seen very little written about this in the past.
Demographics do favor democrats, but there is still a chance for a conservative to win in 2016. The key factors will be:
White females. If Hillary or Warren is the Dem nominee, will white women vot for their gender and ignore the issues? If so, it won’t matter who the Repiblicans nominate.
Blacks. The Dem nominee will almost certainly be a white female. To ensure victory if white females don’t vote gender, the Dems may choose Cory Booker or Deval Patrick as the VP candidate. If that happens blacks will be energized and turn out in large numbers.
Conservative white males. This group is fed up with voting loyally for the GOP and constantly being taken for granted. The current impotence of the Republican Congress is making this solid block of reliable voters disillusioned. Jeb Bush, Romney, or Chris Christie as the GOP nominee might cause a large segment of this group to sit out the election. In that event, the Republicans would lose the White House and might lose one or both houses of Congress.
Hispanics. Even with amnesty they will not yet be registered voters in large numbers. In 2016 the number of illegals involved in voter fraud will be too small to swing the national election but might make the difference in some close congressional races. In 2020 or 2024, depending on who wins the White House in 2016, you can count on a Hispanic on the Dem ticket, probably at the top. He is sitting in the Obama cabinet today. By then 10 to 20 million illegals will be registered voters and the election will be a lock for the Dems no matter what the GOP does.
2016 is the last chance for a conservative president. It appears the GOP establishment, collaborating with the media, will do everything it can to ensure Cruz and Walker will not be the nominee. At this point my bet is Jeb or a repeat of Romney.
I’ve been spending time on college campuses recently and have observed large numbers of Asian students. Are these foreign students headed back to their home countries after graduation or are they a new block of industrious young people who should be courted by the conservative movement? If they are citizens of this country they could be decisive in close elections during the next decade.
4 Choices Quis, you forgot the Article V Movement, IMHO this is are greatest hope and they only reset button. Tough row to hoe when some of brighter minds on our side are dead set against it. We unify for something that is a game changer the left can’t get their arms around or we surrender to their takeover which is a steam roller more so in the social arena that we can’t seem to argue given their lock on the media and impressionable minds...
Bigger problem is the GOP has passed off everyone who gave them huge wins and immediately surrendered to Obama. I don’t think enough people would hold their noses again and vote for Job.
The GOP’s challenge is to find a pair of balls, some balls, 1 pair that’s all, any balls, Bueller?
The Republicans and the Democrats have similar agendas.
They also tend to pi$$ on (and off) the Conservative wing of the base at every opportunity.
“Anyone dispute this?”
Nope.
The next biggest challenge for the GOP is attracting conservative voters.
No matter how hard working some Asians are, many are already died in the wool communists who believe wholeheartedly in communism. They have been taught it is their duty to share what they work for with others especially “the state.” They have little understanding of the concept of what it means to be left alone unfettered by govt. and our school system does nothing to support the traditional view of the US as a nation where freedom reigns. So there is no place where they would learn what being free means.
It used to be that the immigrants coming here were the ones who yearned for freedom. Now most of those who come here believe that we, the citizens of the United States, owe them something. They become indignant when we suggest that they have no right to what we have worked hard to earn. Even Europe has been so infected with socialism that they may have no idea what the concept of freedom from govt. means. I would not count on any immigrant group to save this country.
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