No one seriously expected Sniper to win (though I would've loved to have seen the look on Sean Penn's face if it had).
I'm just glad Selma didn't pull an upset that would've obviously looked like false praise from a chagrined Academy.
Got to remember that, had Clint Eastwood had gotten the BD nomination, AS would have had a chance. When Mr. Eastwood was snubbed the movie had no chance. Remember you have to have for the BD to be able to win BP. That is an unwritten rule in the Oscars.