Weather - no. I totally agree.
Temperature - absolutely, as anyone who has ever tried to dribble a cold basketball on an outdoor playground will immediately attest. Cold effects the pressure of a gas in an enclosed space. Period.
It was 51 at kickoff.
I’m lousy at complex math and physics, but your basketball comparison is spot on. My buddy and I played plenty of b-ball in cold weather and yes, once outside for awhile the ball lost bounce.