Mr. Holmes would have solved this in short order...
Mr. Holmes I’m guessing would have information about what was recovered from the pilot’s home flight simulator. If I’ve missed it then I stand corrected but I have not heard that investigators have revealed what they recovered off the hard drive of that simulator.
Any working hypothesis of where the plane may be should start with what was found on that simulator and look at data ( satellite pings...etc) that either proves or disproves it.
I am of the opinion that there are people who have a very educated guess about where that plane is and either don’t have the evidentiary support ( i.e. wreckage at the bottom of a remote spot in the Indian Ocean) or are forbidden from disclosing the information because of national security concerns. I believe those two scenarios are about equal in possibility.
Probably not, everybody is yapping and there are no silent dogs.